Hurricane Melissa strengthened after it stalled south of Jamaica for most of Sunday, with forecasters fearing the historic storm will cause humanitarian and economic devastation across the region.
Melissa’s sustained winds reached 150 miles per hour (240 km/h), with gusts up to 145 mph. The U.S. National Hurricane Center said in an advisory issued at 2 p.m. New York time, it has become a Category 4 as it moves into the Caribbean about 130 miles southwest of Kingston, Jamaica.
The storm is forecast to reach 160 miles per hour by late Monday, making it a chart-topping Category 5 hurricane on the five-step, Saffron Simpson scale. Melissa has intensified to 70 mph on Saturday.
“Take shelter now,” Ruby Berg, a warning coordination meteorologist at the U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention, wrote in a forecast earlier. Over Jamaica, the winds and heavy rain will cause damaging “afternoons and gusts.”
Melissa has disrupted air travel, closing two international airports in Jamaica, and sending government officials scrambling to find ways to deal with the disaster.
Read more: Tropical Storm Melissa brings heavy rain to Haiti, Dominican Republic and Jamaica
Over 800 shelters were opened in Jamaica. Heavy equipment is being prepared to keep roads open as debris and landslides are all but certain as heavy rain and strong winds lash the Caribbean nation. Companies have evacuated workers and the U.S. Navy has pulled non-essential personnel out of its base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, where Melissa is predicted to wreak havoc on Jamaica. Flooding rain is forecast for Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
Melissa’s slow creep across the region worsens flooding as its heaviest rains continue for days. In a warming world due to climate change, the atmosphere holds more water, leading to heavy rain from tropical systems.
Damages to Jamaica could reach $14 billion, said disaster modeler Chuck Watson of Enki Research. The storm could cause an additional $5 billion in damages in Cuba, where it will make landfall on Tuesday. The damage could increase further, as Melissa is expected to rip through the southern Bahamas and possibly even approach Bermuda on Thursday.
Watson previously worked on an organization of the United States Disaster Mitigation Plan for the region and helped prepare hurricane damage maps for Jamaica.
“Hurricane Melissa is just about the worst scenario you can imagine,” he said. He compared it to Hurricane Gilbert, which caused $7 billion in damage when it hit in 1988. “He said, ‘Melissa will probably double that,'” he said.
LNG terminal operator Accelerate Energy said in a statement that the company had evacuated personnel and that all beach operations had been achieved prior to the storm.
Prime Minister Andrew Hollins also said the island had taken precautions to ensure telecommunications infrastructure could be brought back online immediately, aiming to restore 80 percent of services across most of the island within 72 hours of the storm.
Restoration of the electric grid may take longer. Utility companies on the island have warned that restoring power and other utilities after the storm will likely require rebuilding key infrastructure, not just restoring service.
“A Category 4 hurricane moving through the middle of our island could cause unprecedented damage to our facilities,” Jamaica Public Service CEO Hugh Grant said on Sunday. “It’s unlikely to be rebuilt and not just rehabilitated.”
Depending on the storm’s track, the country’s airports could also be damaged, slowing recovery efforts if the world needs to help Jamaica in its aftermath, said Ryan Trochelt, owner of commercial forester WeatherTiger. Further fueling the barrier efforts are the scaling issues of foreign aid by the US, UK and EU.
According to Jamaican Energy Minister Daryl Vaz, Jamaican state oil company PetroGem has activated emergency systems to prepare for the storm, and said it has two weeks’ worth of fuel reserves to supply the island after Melissa passes, as well as 10 days’ worth of liquefied petroleum gas.
Vaz said facilities in Kingston and Montego Bay were stocked with jet fuel and aviation gasoline to ensure aircraft were fueled.
Petrojam refineries were shut down Saturday before the storm hit, General Manager Taylorway Morgan said.
“Refining operations were suspended on Saturday and the plant was put out accordingly. Our loading racks in both Kingston and Montego Bay were opened by Saturday night to promote all our customers,” he said.
The sources of petro-gems are crude mainly from Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador and Barbados. Morgan said production is averaging 28,000 to 30,000 barrels.
hot water
Melissa has drawn on untapped reservoirs of warm water across the Caribbean because of the 13 storms that have hit the Atlantic so far this year, none have entered that part of the ocean, said Tyler Rose, a meteorologist at EcoWeather Inc.
Water temperatures, which fuel hurricanes, are running 3F to 5F (2C to 3C) above normal for this time of year and approaching 90F (32C) in some places.
Jamaica, including its many waterfront resorts, is a popular tourist destination and a regular destination for ships from the United States and other countries.
Across the mountainous islands of the western Caribbean, up to 30 inches (76 cm) of rain could fall, with isolated spots receiving more than 40 inches, according to the hurricane center.
Melissa will also wash ocean water up to 13 feet above the ground as it washes ashore. About half of the deaths in hurricanes usually come from drowning. Although Melissa’s winds may decrease slightly as it makes landfall, the difference between a Category 4 or 5 storm will not make much of a difference in terms of damage, the hurricane center said.
“If this forecast holds, and it looks on track as of this morning, the implications will be dire,” Watson said.
Top photo: Hurricane Melissa moves through the Caribbean on October 26, 2025. Photo credit: NOAA
Copyright 2025 Bloomberg.
Titles
Catastrophic natural disasters Hurricanes
