Bitcoin (BTC) stormed over 6,106,000 to start the week as the US government unleashed excitement.
Bitcoin joins risk assets in a rebound amid hopes that the US government will end its record shutdown this week.
US inflation data may also return, providing key insights into future Fed policy.
US President Donald Trump has pledged to give most Americans a $2,000 Covid-era stimulus.
Bitcoin derivatives traders remain cautious, with little interest in betting on new highs.
Bitcoin whales are on the radar as permanent sellers in 2025.
The price of BTC increases to 6 106,500
Bitcoin finally gave hope to the bulls at the weekly close, eventually breaking above $104,500.
Quantilgraph Markets’ Pro and Trading View data also confirm that the nearby support trendline—its 50-week moving average (EMA)—is a key key position.
Is the weekly candle close.
Are we ready for a green week in the markets?
— Michael Van de Pope (@cryptomechanical) November 10, 2025
“Watch the $Gold and $BTC 4h trend,” TraderSkew told followers in one of his latest posts on X.
The US government shutdown marks a key event for market sentiment, impacting cryptocurrencies and the broader risk asset landscape.
Data monitored by ResourceConglass shows the amount of liquidity at stake, even with relatively small BTC price moves. Meanwhile, 24-hour cross-crypto liquidation stood at about $350 million at the time of writing.
When discussing support and resistance levels, trader Kripnev had a clear line in the sand in mind.
“Another confluence is the short liquidation cluster at .5 105.5k. Price will target this zone,” he wrote in an X thread.
“Hitting the liquidation will likely move the price to 6 106.5K where there is an interesting resistance.”
With plenty of caution remaining, various market participants have warned that the 7 could easily reverse by rising to local highs near 107,000.
$BTC So far so good.
I like the fact that volume is falling and we just retook the long-term weekly uptrend. pic.twitter.com/dkfgrvh3ci
— Roman (@roman_trading) November 10, 2025
Shutdown Talk brings CPI Week into focus
With talk of a U.S. government shutdown, inflation data is back on the menu for Federal Reserve- and risk-asset traders.
BREAKING: The US Senate voted 60-40 to advance a bill in a major advance to end the US government shutdown.
— Kobesi Letter (@kobesiliter) November 10, 2025
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) print continues on Thursday with the release of initial jobless claims, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) a day later.
The absence of a shutdown would provide an important window into the state of the economy, including the impact of U.S. trade tariffs.
They currently face scrutiny from the Supreme Court, and any announcements on them could inject fresh volatility into the market.
“Amid a data blackout, the Fed is cutting rates and market volatility is returning,” Trading Resource’s Kobesi letter summarized Monday.
Kobesi cited expectations for further interest rate cuts in 2025, with a 0.25 percent cut expected at the Fed’s December meeting, according to data from CME Group’s Fed Watch tool.
With stocks doing well on a better U.S. outlook, trading resource Mosaic Asset Co. argued that the current market trend could be “the most hated bull market ever.”
“While the effects of the government shutdown and speculation about its longevity are making headlines, private sector data points to an economic backdrop that still supports the earnings outlook,” he noted in the latest edition of his regular newsletter, “Market Mosaic.”
Mosaic also cited “excessive levels of fear,” as indicated by multiple market sentiments.
He added, “If the stock market climbs a ‘wall of worry,’ then this recent phase of the stock market rally could be unprecedented in terms of investor fears versus market gains.”
Tariff “dividends” bring back memories of Covid-19
Bitcoin reacted immediately to US President Donald Trump’s comments late Sunday when the latter promised to pay $2,000 to the majority of American citizens.
The payment, linked to Trump’s international trade tariffs, was revealed in Truth’s social media post.
It states, “A minimum of $2000 in dividends per person (not including high earners!) will be paid each.”
Reacting, Kubisi was quick to liken the move to Covid-19-era stimulus checks.
“The stimulus checks are officially back,” he wrote on X.
As Quintalgraph reported at the time, the reissuance of the checks sparked rapid crypto market price action due to their implied impact on the US money supply. As of April 2020, 1,200 checks invested in Bitcoin are now worth about $20,000.
This time may be no different, as they eye an “additional liquidity catalyst,” analysts told QuintileGraph last week.
A surge in US and international liquidity has buoyed the cryptocurrency case throughout the year. The global wide money supply is now $142 trillion – a new record.
“Year-to-date, the money supply has jumped +9.1%, driven by China and the U.S.,” Kobesi reported.
Meanwhile, the tariff scheme hangs in the balance as the US Supreme Court rules on its legality.
Options traders are on alert
Bitcoin derivatives traders have “a bit of confidence in the bottom” around $100,000, as open interest rebounds.
Research from high-tech analytics platform Glassnode warns that “fear” is a driving force in bitcoin options markets in particular.
Analyzing last weekend’s put call volume, Glasnode had little news for the bulls.
“Put-call volumes show little confidence on the downside. Activity picks up during the drop, then calls are intensified as traders start to rebound around $100k,” he wrote in an X-thread.
“Even so, puts the rose again, expecting markets to retest and hedge.”
Statistics show that traders lack a long-term mindset when it comes to Bitcoin, even leaving the odds of a rebound as high as 120,000.
“Options data suggests the market is in panic mode, with little confidence in a lasting bottom,” the thread asserted.
Open interest, which had seen a significant drop alongside the price drop, has already started creeping higher.
As QuintalGraph has reported, it may take longer for bills to stabilize and recover on their own.
Bitcoin wheel sales become standard
Bitcoin whales dominate headlines amid dip in BTC price as innumerable selling spooks traders.
Related: Bitcoin Treasury Bear Market Signals End of Short-Seller Backing Away from MSTR
As Quintalgraph reported, 2025 as a whole has been marked by long-term whales to reduce their BTC exposure. On average, whales have sold more than 1,000 BTC per day.
However, when it comes to Bitcoin accumulation, the picture changes. In its “Quick Tech” blog post on Sunday, Onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant gave several reasons for the bullishness.
“Today, these initial large holders can more easily exit the market, and it’s important that this phase of distribution happens,” argued partner Dark Faust.
“Now, if we zoom out and look at the bigger picture, the whales are still accumulating in this cycle. Here we can see that the 1-year change in whale holdings is increasing from 2023.”
The accompanying chart confirms that for the past two years, the one-year change in wheel holdings has been positive.
Even in recent months, the trend has stabilized – pointing to a brighter outlook for prices.
“After a strong month in August, Wheel holdings fell from 398,000 BTC to 185,000 BTC in October, just as BTC 3 was breaking above 123,000. Since then, the accumulation began, and by November 7 their holdings had climbed to 294,000 BTC.”
“So even though some whales seem to be exiting the market, we’re seeing new people come in, and existing players gather as well.”
The Bitcoin Accumulating Wallet added a massive 50,000 BTC in a single day as BTC/USD revisited the sub-$100,000 level.
“In the medium to long term, a portion of the whales are still increasing their exposure, and the current trend looks nothing like the split phase that unfolded at the end of the 2021 cycle,” Darkfoist concluded.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading venture involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.
