Bitcoin (BTC) is hanging by a thread below the 90,000,000 level in November’s monthly close.
Bitcoin traders expect a minor recovery and even a wild sell-off, a return above the $100,000 mark.
BTC price action still has to contend with the aftermath of its latest “death cross” on daily time frames.
New data shows that speculators are absorbing the coins distributed by long-term holders.
Thanksgiving week offers a short yet data-rich period for risk assets.
Crypto market sentiment is on the rebound as stocks sink deeper into “extreme fear.”
Is Bitcoin Rising From The Wreck?
After its latest local low of $80,500 last week, Bitcoin is highly uncertain as the November month approaches.
Data from QuintalGraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that the $88,000 mark currently serves as the price ceiling.
Traders are divided as usual, with long-term bearish forecasts mixed with modest optimism.
“Bitcoin has reclaimed the 4H SMA-20 for the first time in 2 weeks,” trader BitBull noted in an X post on Monday, referring to the 20-period simple moving average on the four-hour chart.
“On the short time frame, $BTC is looking good now. Weekly, 000 will make a case for a rally towards $105K-$110K above 92,000.”
More optimism came from Don Crypto trading, who argued that the weekly structure is still “intact” despite the collapse of a major support.
$BTC It is clear by now that Bitcoin has completely lost its bull market support band.
It supported the price all cycle, with some small deviations below.
But this recent move has made it so much more than a 20k+ gap to get back on the bandwagon.
At some point,… pic.twitter.com/dl15lflmix
– Daan Crypto Trading (daancrypto) November 23, 2025
Meanwhile, crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michael Van de Poppe described Bitcoin’s latest three-day chart candle as “tremendous”.
“These are usually built around the bottom of the markets forming, and since current sentiment and indicators are more heavily overvalued than FTX, I wouldn’t be surprised to see $BTC trading between $90-96K in the coming week,” he told XFollowers.
Van de Poppe cited the crypto market’s reaction to the exchange FTX discrepancy at the end of 2022, the event that led to the final phase of the last bear market.
The price of BTC faces death
The coming days will constitute a key test for the strength of the Bitcoin market as the price breaks out of a classic bear signal on daily time frames.
The latest “death cross” on BTC/USD, formed when the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) breaks below the 200-day equivalent, struck on November 15.
The implications of this vary depending on where Bitcoin is in its price cycle, but under current conditions, a major recovery is needed to hold out for the long haul.
Commentator Benjamin Cowen wrote in an X-post on the topic last week that “Note that earlier deaths marked local rooms in the market.”
“Of course, when the cycle ends, the death cross rally fails. Bitcoin’s bounce time will start within the next week if the cycle doesn’t end.”
Cowen warned that if such a “bounce” fails to occur, the 200-day SMA will be the target of a lower high, thus extinguishing hopes of a bull market comeback.
“If there is no bounce within 1 week, perhaps another dump before a big rally at the 200 DSMA that will mark the macro lows,” he asserted.
The 200-day SMA is currently sitting at 110,130.
As reported by QuintalGraph, the price got rattled two weeks ago after missing the 50-week moving average (EMA), which hasn’t seen a weekly candle below it since March 2023.
Updating X Followers, trader and analyst REKT Capital showed that the 50-week EMA now aligns with the macro trendline, potentially reinforcing its status as resistance.
“It just so happens that the 50-week EMA (purple) is almost coincident with the macro downtrend (black),” he wrote alongside a chart on Sunday.
“A break of the 50-week EMA into resistance (or even a slight rise above it but failing to turn it into new support) while also rejecting the macro downtrend would signal weakness and confirmation of a lower high.”
Speculative steps
The volatility in Bitcoin’s price has sparked a sharp shift among investors, with reactions dividing the multi-month low.
New research this week from Onchin analytics platform CryptoQuant shows that the supply of BTC is shifting from long-term (LTHS) to short-term holders (STHS).
“Long-term holders are heavily distributing and selling, while short-term holders are buying and accumulating,” summarized contributor Cryptonchain in a “QuickTech” blog post.
This post examines the 30-day position shift between LTH and STH institutions, defined as over 155 days and over 155 days respectively.
While “splitting” characterizes LTH investors, newcomers, traditionally considered more speculative in their trading habits, are absorbing their coins.
“This group, often driven by market euphoria, is now ‘accumulating’ at higher prices,” Kryptonchain added, adding that the overall move has hit 63,000 BTC.
Earlier, QuintelGraph reported on the panic in speculation by the market decline.
Cohort’s leveraged output profit ratio (SOPR)—the ratio of coins moving to Onchin in profit or loss—hit a 15-month low of 0.927 at the end of the week.
Thanksgiving week brings back old data
The upcoming US macro week may be slower than usual due to Thanksgiving, but traders will have little time to relax.
The knock-on effect of the government shutdown means a backlog of economic data is making its way into the market—and every print can affect sentiment and asset performance.
The September number will be in focus in the coming days, with both the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index.
Q3 GDP and initial jobless claims add to the mix, meaning that by the time Thanksgiving rolls around, traders’ view of the economic outlook could change significantly.
“We have a short but busy week ahead of us,” commented Trading Resource Kobesi letter to X.
Earlier, QuantilGraph reported ending expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.
The latest odds from CME Group’s FedWatch tool show that expectations for a 0.25% cut at the Fed’s December meeting are now around 70%.
In the latest edition of its regular analysis series, “Market Mosaic,” trading resource Mosaic Asset Co. noted that Fed officials themselves have turned more hawkish on the outlook.
“Minutes from the Fed’s recent rate-setting meeting also noted that ‘many participants’ suggested that it would be appropriate to ‘keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year’ regarding the Fed funds rate.
Nevertheless, Mosaic Assets suggested that US stocks are “oversold” and thus due for a classic Santa rally later in the year.
“Recent latitude conditions are also supporting a rally, which turns seasonally into a major tailwind during this holiday low week,” he added.
“There are already signs late last week that buying pressure is building.”
The daily relative strength index (RSI) on the S&P 500 fell below 35 last week, marking its lowest reading since April.
Crypto is prone to sentimentality
Crypto market sentiment is showing tentative signs of recovery as it outpaces rock-bottom readings in traditional markets.
Related: Bitcoin $200K Sooner or 2029? Scott Besant Hangs at the Bitcoin Bar: Hudler Digest, November 16. 22.
The Fear and Greed Index and the latest numbers from the Crypto Fear and Greed Index give crypto bulls an optimistic outlook.
After hitting its combined lowest level for 2025 last week, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index is sitting at 19/100 on Monday. Although still in “extreme fear” mode, the index has been at odds with stocks, helping to produce just 11/100ths of its trade-offs.
This represents a reversal from earlier, when crypto sentiment reduced risk assets. Now, crypto’s uptrend may foretell a broader recovery in risk assets.
“Bitcoin sentiment on social media has officially hit its lowest point since December 11, 2023,” research firm Sentiment revealed on Friday.
“According to bullish vs. fish comments on X, Reddit, Telegram, and others, retail is seeing significant levels of retail and panic selling that we haven’t seen in 2 years.”
At the same time, Kobesi reiterated that a clear news or macro trigger had not happened with humor in both crypto and stocks.
The reforms, he argued, were “structural” in nature and resulted from over-exploitation and
“Leverage is fueling a shift in investor sentiment,” read an X-thread on the subject.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading venture involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.
