Bitcoin (BTC) traded 4.5 percent below a high of $74,000 on Thursday, with traders divided on whether the level marked a local top for the BTC price.
Important Points:
Bitcoin charts still show similarities to the 2022 bear cycle, suggesting another leg below $60,000 is possible.
Others say there is a downside and expect a breakout rally after $75,000–$80,000.
Is 2022 BTC Price Cycle Repeating?
BTC’s current technical structure, after the latest recovery from $60,000, shows similarities to the bear’s past intermediate period.
Bitcoin’s most recent rally to $74,000 came 149 days after reaching a bull market peak of $126,000 in October 2025.
Related: Bitcoin ‘unusual’ exodus sees exchange shed 32K BTC in single day
“$BTC made a local high near the 140-150 days following its all-time highs in the previous two cycles,” analyst Bitcoin Hyper said in an X post on Thursday.
Echoing that view, pseudonymous trader Bitcoin Isaiah called the $74,000 rally “a great local top indicator,” pointing to bulls celebrating prematurely and signaling further dumping.
The analyst cited the 2022 cycle, when similar euphoria preceded the 68% crash from $48,200 to $15,500, suggesting history could repeat itself with a re-appearance of the sub-$60,000 level.
The crypto master said the short pump above $70,000 was a liquidity trap, eliminating both shorts and longs before hitting the lows between $62,000-$65,000 where there are more ask orders, adding:
“Prices usually go where the most money sits.”
As Cointelegraph reported, signs of a pullback appeared after the rally to $74,000 this week, namely a classic bearish chart pattern and major overhead resistance.
Is Bitcoin’s Relief Rally Over?
Bell, however, argues that $60,000 was likely at the bottom of the market, indicating a structural change.
For example, crypto analyst Bitcoin Munger said that the 2022 Bitcoin bear fractal was not “a reason to be bearish” because the cycle is different.
The accompanying chart showed that while the 2022 drawdown saw price “cut through” the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), the current simply retested the trendline and bounced.
Meanwhile, analyst Mr. Crypto says the BTC/USD pair is breaking out of an ascending triangle expecting a “strong move to the upside,” if the upper trend line holds as support at $70,000.
Other differences in the 2022 cycle include the arrival of strong institutional ETFs and tight supply, which could help Bitcoin avoid another crash and set it up for a rally to $75,000-$80,000.
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