This One Decision Can Turn Uncertainty Into Your Biggest Opportunity

Every big leap in my career, and every change I’ve led, began with a decision that involved risk, uncertainty, and pain. If you’re a leader, you’ve likely faced similar inflection points.

Years ago, at Washington State University, we launched one of the first fully online undergraduate Management Information Systems (MIS) programs. At the time, it was uncharted territory. Few business schools had ventured into online learning, and many questioned whether students or employers would take the format seriously. Failure led to reputational and financial consequences. But waiting will reduce the downside while guaranteeing that we will lose the upside.

That’s the nature of bold bets: uncomfortable, uncertain, and often unpopular. But when they’re aligned with your mission and built with foresight, they can transform your business.

Here are five principles I’ve used to make mission-driven bets without putting the organization at unnecessary risk.

1. Make sure the mission justifies the risk.

A bold bet should feel worth it. In Washington State, our mission was to increase access to quality education. Going online was risky, but it was also a path to greater inclusion, access and relevance. This explanation reassured us.

Ask yourself: What goal justifies the short-term suffering? If it works, who benefits? Does the potential reward justify the risk?

If you can’t give a clear answer, you’re not ready. But if the answers motivate you, you’re on the right track.

2. Build a team that thrives in uncertainty.

Bold moves are made or broken by the people behind them. A bold bet without the right team will fail. When I look back at the large-scale changes I’ve led—like building futuristic classroom facilities or launching an early online degree program—the common thread is always the team.

To increase your chances of success, gather people who:

• Be comfortable not having all the answers.
• Offer diverse perspectives and prioritize growth over ego.
• Contribute energy instead of resistance.

Momentum comes from those who want to push the bet. Rent for energy, not friction. You will need it.

3. Seek criticism before you think you need it.

Many leaders avoid testing until it’s too late. Early pushback can save your best ideas from preventable failure.

When we faced an accreditation challenge, we engaged faculty, alumni, and staff in problem solving. Their input helped identify flaws, avoid pitfalls and achieve faster alignment.

To paraphrase this:

• Share the initial idea with those who will be affected.
• Ask specifically where the idea might fail.
• Include their concerns in your plan.
• Treat resistance as data, not opposition.

Accepting criticism early reduces friction later.

4. Time your boldness strategically.

Bold does not mean impressive. Assess whether the timing supports the bet—not just that the opportunity is exciting. Ask yourself: Is your team ready? Are the external conditions favorable? Do you have resources to follow?

A good idea at the wrong time can become a liability. When time and preparation align, a bold move becomes a catalyst.

5. Let the data inform you, but don’t let it paralyze you.

Before launching our online program, we reviewed trends in enrollment, workforce needs and technology adoption. The data indicated a growing demand among working adults and comfort with online platforms.

But data doesn’t answer everything. It could not predict how the faculty would adapt or how quickly the program would scale. It required judgment and experience. We paired the data with our knowledge of capabilities and grounded the decision in our mission to expand access for students who might not otherwise earn a degree.

Data should validate the opportunity, not replace the decision. Use it to shape direction, then combine it with institutional knowledge and mission definition to make the final call.

Bet what moves you.

Bold decisions aren’t reckless – they’re calculated risks based on purpose, timing and team alignment. They become dangerous only when taken without any explanation or care.

When you choose an important mission, test your ideas, gather the right people, get honest feedback and act at the right time. Bold stakes then become engines of growth and impact.

The first step is the most difficult and the most important.

Every big leap in my career, and every change I’ve led, began with a decision that involved risk, uncertainty, and pain. If you’re a leader, you’ve likely faced similar inflection points.

Years ago, at Washington State University, we launched one of the first fully online undergraduate Management Information Systems (MIS) programs. At the time, it was uncharted territory. Few business schools had ventured into online learning, and many questioned whether students or employers would take the format seriously. Failure led to reputational and financial consequences. But waiting will reduce the downside while guaranteeing that we will lose the upside.