Mortgage rates rose this week after news of a new war in the Middle East.
In the week ended March 6, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose seven basis points from the week before to 5.94 percent, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. (A base point is one-hundredth of a percentage point.)
APRs for 30-year fixed mortgages averaged 5.92 percent in February, seven basis points below the January average and 84 basis points below February 2025.
How Conflict in Iran Affects Mortgage Rates
Beth M. Hammick, president of the Cleveland Federal Reserve and a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, told The New York Times this week that she expects the Fed to keep rates steady “for some time” as central bankers wait for concrete data on the potential impact of the Iranian conflict on inflation.
“If we don’t see inflation moving toward the target as I expect, that may mean we need to tighten more restrictions on the economy,” he said.
In other words, if inflation really rises, some central bankers may even push to raise rates.
For members of the Federal Open Market Committee who are more concerned about inflation, this could put them in direct conflict with Kevin Warsh, the president’s nominee for the Fed’s next chair. President Trump has made it clear that he expects Warsh to follow through on his goal of lowering rates, even joking during a speech at a Washington dinner in January that he would sue if Warsh didn’t do so.
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US job losses in February
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its February jobs report this morning, showing a weaker-than-expected number of jobs. Although it was estimated that the US would add 50,000 jobs, the report showed a net loss of 92,000. The unemployment rate remained flat at 4.4 percent.
Job losses aren’t quite as dramatic as they sound. They can mostly be attributed to slow hiring in health care, which the BLS links to strike activity. Employment growth has been largely concentrated in this sector, so this shift is reducing the number of jobs overall.
“While slow growth doesn’t necessarily lead to a very strong economy, it’s not always cause for panic,” says Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdVault.
As of Friday afternoon, analysts were still widely predicting that the central banker would keep rates steady at their meeting later this month.
