If you are looking for low mortgage interest rates here, today is not your day.
The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage came in at 6.1% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is 11 basis points higher than yesterday and 14 basis points higher than a week ago. (See our chart below for more details.) A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point.
Keep in mind that mortgage rates are always moving, and that if you’re tracking rates daily, you’ll see a lot of fluctuation. Zooming out and looking at the bigger picture—such as a graph showing at least one month’s worth of price data—can help you see the overall trend.
While the economy never sleeps, the markets close on weekends. The rates you see on Friday are unlikely to change much (if at all) until Monday.
Average mortgage rate, last 30 days
📉 When will mortgage rates go down?
Next week, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve. Central bankers at the Fed are scheduled to meet on March 17-18, when they are widely expected to keep the federal funds rate on hold amid economic uncertainty. (The federal funds rate indirectly affects mortgage rates.) The Fed is tasked with balancing inflation with the employment situation, which looks weaker than expected: The February jobs report showed the U.S. lost 92,000 jobs last month, compared to an expected gain of 50,000.
Meanwhile, we got two big inflation reports this week. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that inflation remained steady at 2.4 percent in February. Personal consumption expenditures (CPE) – the Fed’s preferred measure, released this morning – showed core inflation at 2.8 percent in January and signs of weaker consumer spending.
This isn’t a red flag in itself, but today’s CPE report is already out of date. The US has since entered a new (potentially costly) war in the Middle East, and its effects on inflation, such as higher energy prices, are not yet reflected in the data.
“This means things may be more fragile than we know right now,” says Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdVault. “Keep in mind, this is data from January, and a lot has happened in the past several weeks. A weak jobs report for February and inflation above target before the war in Iran started set the stage for potential weakness.”
Markets have already pushed up oil prices after attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil shipping route. When oil supplies fall, unemployment and inflation can rise – disrupting the economy with mortgage rates hovering around the 6 percent we’ve all grown accustomed to since January.
If today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 percentage points lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).
With rates where they are now, if your current rate is 6.6% or higher you may want to start considering a refinance.
🏡 Should I start home shopping?
There is no universal “right” time to start buying – what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage at today’s rates.
🔒 Should I lock my rate?
Rate locks protect you from hikes during your loan process, and with the market forever bouncing around, the peace of mind can be worth it.
🤓 Nerdy reminder: Prices can change daily and even hourly. If you’re happy with your contract, it’s okay to commit.
🧐 Why is the rate I see online different from the rate I get?
In addition to market factors beyond your control, the quote you want depends on you:
Even Two people with the same credit score Depending on their overall financial profiles, different rates may be available.
👀 If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?
Maybe – but even personalized rates Can be changed until you lock. This is because lenders adjust prices several times a day in response to market changes.
