Concerns are growing that global equity markets are drifting into another bubble, leading to wild optimism about AI. If this bubble bursts in 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market could be among the first to feel the fallout.
The key path:
The dangers of an AI bubble may hit crypto first, as massive, debt-financed equity markets are opened up.
Bitcoin, 000 could fall to $60,000–$75,000, but institutional support could help limit losses compared to past crashes.
An AI bubble could trigger a “severe” meltdown in stocks
In November, 45% of fund managers surveyed by Bank of America flagged the “AI bubble” as the market’s biggest tail risk, up from just 11% in September.
More than half of respondents said they believe AI stocks are already trading in bubble territory, thanks to high costs and poor returns on investment.
Companies such as MetaPlatforms, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Oracle have projected AI infrastructure spending to 2025.
According to Alexander Joshi, head of behavioral finance at Barclays UK, combined capital expenditure, or capex, is expected to grow by 64% year-on-year by 2026.
“AI data centers are estimated to be the largest infrastructure buildout in modern history,” he wrote in a November report.
“AI data centers now drive a significant portion of US GDP growth. While not inherently bad, this dependence is dangerous if AI’s momentum stalls. If expectations are shattered, the snapback could be severe.”
Financial analyst Hedgie Markets has warned that the AI boom is at risk of a much harsher crash than the dot-com bubble burst of the 2000s, and argues that the sector spent about $400 billion to achieve just $60 billion in revenue by 2025, with most firms not seeing a return.
🦔 I think the AI bubble is going to pop, and when it does, it’s going to be uglier than people expect. Forrester predicts a market correction in 2026, and honestly, I think they’re optimistic. The sector is spending $400 billion while only $60 billion in…
— Hedgy (@HedgyMarkets) December 15, 2025
Unlike the equity-financed dotcom era, today’s AI expansion is debt-driven, raising the risk of failures among private equity, banks, insurers, and already stressed consumers if growth expectations falter.
Economic historian Carlota Pérez warned that AI and crypto collapse could lead to a global economic collapse of “unimaginable proportions”.
How low could Bitcoin fall if the AI bubble pops in 2026?
Techer CEO Paolo Arduino has warned that the AI sector reform could spill over into crypto markets in 2026, calling it “Bitcoin’s biggest threat” this year, while citing its positive correlation with US equities as the basis for his bearish outlook.
Arduino added that BTC’s correction will not be as severe as it was during the 2022 (-77%) and 2018 (-84%) bear markets, due to its increased institutional exposure.
By December, bitcoin was down 30% from its record high of $106,200.
Related: Bitcoin’s apparent demand eases, signals new bear market: Analyst
Analyst Nomad Bluestraat said Bitcoin’s price may not fall below its average production cost in the $71,000-$75,000 range, a target area previously suggested by BTC’s prevailing bearish flag pattern.
A report attributed to the fund Strat Global Advisor, as well as Fidelity, predicted that the price of bitcoin would reach $60,000–$65,000 in 2026.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading venture involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision. Although we strive to provide accurate and timely information, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. QuintileGraph shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading venture involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision. Although we strive to provide accurate and timely information, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. QuintileGraph shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
