Bitcoin (BTC) started its first pullback in months as geopolitics excited world assets.
Bitcoin’s rise in prices comes after a return of around 93,000 in the month, but traders are skeptical.
A key golden cross is present on the nearly four-hour chart, paving the way for further market strength.
Venezuela’s reactions are a key focus for risk asset traders this week.
US labor market data dampens Fed rate expectations this month.
Bitcoin Wheels remain active sellers during the New Year.
Bitcoin Price Breakout or Sub $80,000 Next?
Bitcoin is finally giving the bulls some relief this week as BTC price action reacts favorably to geopolitical events – will it last?
The question is getting some serious attention from traders and observers as BTC/USD hits $93,000 for the first time since December 11th.
Bitcoin has gained as much as 6.6 percent over the past five days, data from TradingView shows.
“Prices will recover directly from here,” trader Cripnuevo argued in a thread on X.
Kripnev likened the current price action to October 2019, predicting that prices will continue to hunt for close liquidity on the exchange’s order books.
“The structure is the same and liquidity runs before prices sweep, and then pumps,” he added.
“I think we’ll sweep the bottom with or without a liquidity run.”
That would mark a trip below 80,000 for the first time since last April. Along the way, two “differences” in CME Group’s bitcoin futures market could provide early targets.
“Two CME gaps, $90,500–$91,600 and $88,200–$88,800, are sitting below,” confirmed the Bitcoin Education Resource Coin Bureau.
Meanwhile, in the latest data monitored by ResourceConglass, 24-hour crypto short positions have been put at $250 million. Liquidity piled up at the weekly close with the next upside target, 93,700 bulls.
Commenting on data from one of his proprietary trading tools, Keith Allen, cofounder of trading platform Material Indicators, sees more interesting price moves in the next price.
A “wall” of sell orders, which previously sat at 100,000, is no longer in place.
“Now the fun begins,” Allen told X-Followers, along with a chart showing the increase in purchases from small bitcoin wheels.
Bitcoin Golden Cross Closer to Confirmation
A 5% BTC price rebound may seem modest by the standards of the general crypto market, but the implications of this trend could be significant.
Analysis of the Simple Moving Average (SMA) and Moving Average (EMA) gives Bitcoin bulls, above 90,000, a reason for optimism.
For the first time since 4 114K, Bitcoin is trading above its 4 hourly 200 moving average cloud.
This is a win for the Bulls.
As long as they can keep the price above MA cloud.
I’m watching… pic.twitter.com/ntm9nlro2a
— Caleb Franzen (@CalebFranzen) January 3, 2026
Currently a bullish trend is the 50 period SMA crossing the 200 period equivalent on the four day chart. This “golden cross” indicates momentum for buying a lower timeframe, and will override the “death cross” from mid-October.
On the daily chart, a month later, a golden cross followed by his own death cross is far from reality.
Taking a longer-term view, however, Trader Superbro notes that another pair of trendlines is already turning green: the weekly 100-period SMA and EMA.
In previous Bitcoin bear markets, the 100-week EMA crossing under the 100-week SMA came at the start of a major BTC price decline—but 2026 is proving to be different.
“Historically, the weekly 100 EMA and SMA bear deep crosses. Each previous cycle saw a 50%+ crash below the cycle within weeks,” Superbro wrote on X.
“This is an unprecedented rapid departure from previous cycles.”
As reported by QuintalGraph, Bitcoin’s 2025 performance has fueled claims that the four-year BTC price cycle theory is no longer valid.
Venezuela dictates market moves
All eyes are on risk assets and commodities this week as markets react to US military action in Venezuela and its aftermath.
The dramatic headlines hit outside of TradeFi’s trading hours over the weekend, leaving the crypto with the world’s only real-time answer.
The total crypto market cap has increased by 5% since Friday, retrieving the $3 trillion mark.
More evident, however, is a return to the same direction as safe-haven assets such as gold and silver.
ZAO/USD was up 2% at the time of writing on Monday, heading for a rematch with December’s all-time high of 4,450 per ounce.
At the same time, the implications of a possible U.S. seizure of Venezuelan oil and gas have weighed on global prices, while the U.S. dollar’s strength is near its highest level in nearly a month.
On Sunday, trading resource Kobesi predicted in a letter that assets would “move” across the board after TradeFi traders returned.
“Energy prices are falling amid a massive increase in geopolitical tensions.
Kobesi told readers to “keep looking” at gold and silver.
A potential bull factor for Bitcoin in particular, meanwhile, comes from Venezuela’s BTC reserves. It’s a topic that’s now seeing increasing debate on social media.
Although still a matter of speculation, the country is believed to have amassed substantial bitcoin reserves as a way to skirt US sanctions. Circulating figures include 600-660,000 BTC ($55-60 billion).
“Prior to 2026, Venezuelan official/on-chain holdings were minimal (eg, ~240 BTC from visits/mining reported in some trackers),” noted crypto analyst and observer Mart Party in an X-post on the subject.
“The $60b figure specifically refers to the alleged off-books stockpile created to circumvent sanctions.”
The Fed is likely to hold interest rates in January
The first full trading week of 2026 contains some key US economic data releases for risk sentiment.
⚡ Key economic events this week:
Monday – Market Response to Venezuela Developments
Tuesday – December ISM PMI data release
Wednesday – December ADP Non-Farm Employment Data, November Jolts Job Openings Data
Friday December jobs report, MI consumer sentiment in January… pic.twitter.com/sdubti6wlt
— cointelegraph (@cointelegraph) January 5, 2026
It will focus on employment trends, at a time when the labor market continues to exhibit stress.
This has implications for the Federal Reserve, which has to decide on interest rate changes at its meeting on January 28. For risk assets, another cut would be welcome, but sentiment does not yet support this outcome.
The latest data from the CME Group’s FedWatch tool puts the odds of at least a 0.25% cut at just 17.2%.
Even so, the analysis sees already loose financial conditions continuing to support stocks — at least for the first half of the year.
“I expect conditions to continue to favor the bull market through early 2026, including ample liquidity supporting a growing economy and loose financial conditions.” Trading Resources Mosaic Asset Company wrote in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “Market Mosaic”.
Mosaic warned that resurgent inflation could make the tail of 2026 very different from the half.
“I believe there will be a major transition for the stock market, and that the increased money supply will eventually force tighter monetary policy in the world’s major economies,” he wrote.
As QuintalGraph reported, the Fed’s composition is shifting the balance in favor of officials who support additional rate cuts, as sought by President Donald Trump.
Whales hit the “sell” button
Bitcoin’s rebound from below $90,000 may not be easy, thanks entirely to crypto market forces.
Related: Ken Warwick Loses 50k Eth Bet, Bitmine’s ‘1000x’ Share Plan: Hodler Digest, 21 Dec. January 3 3
New data from the Onechain analytics platform shows that high-volume traders are already trying to lock in modest profits and reduce exposure to BTC.
The week beginning December 29 saw a monthly high in net inflows to the largest global exchange, Binance, with BTC holdings close to $1.5 billion alone.
“Such transfers of BTC and ETH from private wallets to exchanges usually indicate one of two intentions: selling those assets or preparing to use them as a suicide attack in the derivatives markets,” partner Cryptochain wrote in a “QuickTech” blog post.
The cryptocoin warned that buying power is not matching the influx, with stablecoin netflows “essentially flat.”
“Much of this activity reflects internal shifts—primarily USDT moving between the ERC-20 and TRC-20 networks, compared to fresh capital entering the exchange,” Kryptonchain added.
Another QuickTech post revealed active wheel selling in the exchange.
The two-week moving average of the exchange’s wheel ratio indicator, which measures the ratio of inflows to the ten largest originating wheel institutions, is now at its highest since March 2025.
“Historically, movements like this have been a precursor to increased selling and supply pressure,” Kryptonian commented.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading venture involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision. Although we strive to provide accurate and timely information, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. QuintileGraph shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading venture involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision. Although we strive to provide accurate and timely information, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. QuintileGraph shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
