At the beginning of the week, Bitcoin (BTC) priced was under pressure from the seller, which was reduced to March 17, less than 84,500, at the time of writing, 81,300. This downward movement is dominant. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) was on sale related to a two-day meeting, which is held on March 18-19.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets as a market reset. Each time the FOMC is deliberately found on US monetary policy, crypto markets effect. Depending.
Historically, traders reduced the risk and length before the announcement, and after the meeting and press conference with the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, markets can react.
The current FOMC meeting press release is scheduled at 2:30 pm on Wednesday, March 19, and can mobilize major movements in the Bitcoin market. An analysis of the market behavior that leads to its release can indicate Bitcoin’s next move.
For traders, FOMC means fluctuations
Traders are closely monitoring the FOMC minute for any change in the stance on inflation and interest rates.
After the announcement of the FOMC, the price of bitcoin appears rapidly. Since the beginning of 2024, BTC prices have declined most when the FOMC decided to maintain rates, as can be seen on the chart below.
The notable discount was the pre -Halling rally of February 2024, which was also previously accompanied by the launch of the spot BTCETF. When US interest rates were deducted on September 18, 2024 and November 7, 2024, BitCoin staged a rally.
However, on December 18, 2024, the third cut did not produce the same result. The slight reduction marks the price of local butt coin to 4.50 % – 4.75 %, up to 25 point points, 000 108,000.
The BTC/USD 1 day chart containing FOMC dates. Sau: My Poteriava, Trading View
Markets delete before the FOMC, except this time
An important indicator that provides insights for market emotions is open interest. The total number of derivative contracts, mostly $ 1 permanent future, has not been determined.
Historically, according to the Conglas data -based graph, historically, BitCoin’s open interest falls before the FOMC meetings, which shows that traders are reducing leverage and risk exhibition.
Bitcoin Future Open Interest and FOMC Dates. Source: My Potariava, Conglas
However, another sample has emerged this month. Earlier this month, despite the interest of BitCoin’s $ 12 billion open interest, there was no significant reduction in Bitcoin’s open interest in the days before the FOMC. However, the price of the BTC has dropped, which is unusual and can identify a strong directional condition.
It may also be a sign that traders feel less worry about the feed decision, potentially expecting neutral results. Supporting this theory, the CME group’s feed watch tool indicates a 99 % possibility that the feed rates will maintain 4.25 % – 4.50 %.
If there is no change in prices, it is possible that the price of bitcoin continues to continue its current decline. This can be exactly when the hyper -worthy wheel was expected when he opened a 40x leverage short position worth more than 500 million at his peak. However, this position is now closed.
Related: BTCCoin Stalls under BTC Key Price Level K 85K – to see FOMC before
What kind of reaction is Spot Butt Coin ETFS?
Unlike Bitcoin Wheels, investors in Bitcoin Etfs have historically offloaded BTC Holdings before FOMC meetings.
According to Konglas data, the spot BTCETFS, which was launched in January 2024 in January 2024, has made ETF expenses or with a modest arrival. The noteworthy discount was the last of January 2025, when the Spot Butt Coin ETF investors could not resist the desire to buy.
Bitcoin spot ETF Net Infusion and FOMC dates. Source: My Potariava, Conglas
On March 17, Spot Bit Coin ETFS saw $ 275 million in net arrival, which identified a month of flow for a month. This may indicate a change in investors’ feelings and expectations for feed policy decisions.
If the arrival of the spot ETF is increasing before the FOMC, investors are expecting more than David’s stand, such as indicating future rates decreases or maintaining liquidity friendly policies.
Investors can also be loaded with Bitcoin as a hedge against uncertainty. This shows that some institutional investors believe that BitCoin will perform well, regardless of the Fed decision.
Investors can also expect a possible short squeeze. If the traders were expecting the bitcoin to fall and in a short position, the sudden increase in the arrival of the ETF could play its role in the behavior of the traders and stimulate a short squeeze.
After the FOMC, the BTC pricing action, as well as the flow of high data and spot ETF, will show that the recent activity was part of the long -term accumulation trend or just speculation positioning.
However, one thing that many traders now agree on is that the BTCC can experience significant movement in prices after the announcement of theMC. As the Crypto Trader Master of Creepo kept it in a recent X Post:
“The FOMC is tomorrow, and a big move is expected.”
Even without cutting the rate, the possibility of releasing the feed can raise the markets, while their absence can reduce prices.
This article does not have investment suggestions or recommendations. Each investment and trade initiatives include a threat, and readers should do their research when making a decision.
