Bitcoin (BTC) at Christmas at a crossroads with bulls and bears locked in a struggle for control.
Bitcoin price targets diverge sharply as frustration builds due to the lack of a breakout.
Japan ruffles feathers with record bond yields smashing gold and silver at all-time highs.
Bitcoin is anything but price discovery as bull-bear market cycle indicators see multi-year lows.
Coinbase premium is back in the red, US sellers remain strong.
Sentiment conditions lead to more action calls in a volatile market.
Breakout Bets Diverge At End Of The Year Bitcoin
After initially hovering around the weekly close, Bitcoin saw some much-needed support as the bulls attempted to recapture $90,000.
QuantileGraph Markets and TradingView figures show BTC/USD circling multi-day highs on Monday.
Traders have become increasingly polarized on the outlook, with some warning of a return to annual earnings while others expect a full bull market rebound.
In his latest analysis on X, trader Kripnev sees both outcomes as next possible.
He said the seller had disposed of the majority of his capital in the two months since bitcoin hit its latest all-time high of $6,126,000.
“I believe there probably isn’t much left to sell right now. So the scenario for a significant downside is low,” he wrote.
“Losing $80k would cost the next support at $373K-$72K, but this information makes that unlikely – unless there is a new trigger for that to happen.”
Instead, Krapinev looked at the 50-day moving average (EMA) as a potential target, near the 93,500 annual open.
“With this information, I wouldn’t be surprised to see an aggressive pump and launch by EOV in 2026,” X-Thread continued.
“Clearing the local resistance at .5 94.5K (match with 1d50ema) will be a clear sign. And then, it will face strong resistance at 100k.”
Expectations for the coming months also vary. One of the fish is like Trader Killa, now seeing a comic that is 60,000,000 starting in Q1 2026.
Don’t shoot the messenger, the final boss has entered the chat.
Ready for 1-22 months?
Big leg up to 60 kg starts from February March. pic.twitter.com/vgjanean8h
— Killa (@killaxbt) December 22, 2025
Reiterating his comparison to Bitcoin’s previous bull market ending in 2021, Trader Roman predicted a “very boring” fest for crypto and stocks.
Gold, Silver hit records when Japan cast a shadow
A relatively short week of US macro data releases until January gives the Fed pause for thought – but traders are seeing volatility everywhere.
Markets close for Christmas before corruption claims and the delayed release of Q3 GDP numbers form the backbone of the macro data print on Wednesday.
As the week begins, however, it is precious metals and Japan’s economy that are stealing the spotlight.
Japanese 10-year bond yields rose 2.1 percent and officials rolled out a $140 billion stimulus package, just days after the central bank raised interest rates to 30-year highs.
“Just as you think the situation in Japan can’t get any worse, it gets worse,” trade resource Kubesi reacted to the letter to X.
Breaking: Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rises to a record 2.10%, now more than +100 basis points in 2025.
Just when you think the situation in Japan can’t get any worse, it gets worse. pic.twitter.com/ekwvc9hnr4
— Kobesi Letter (@kobesiliter) December 22, 2025
Uncertainty over Japan has a history of fueling weakness in crypto markets, while reactions to inconsistent rate hikes were less pronounced.
A flight to safety may already be at hand—both gold and silver are hitting all-time highs, while bitcoin and altcoins remain well below them.
Gold rose to 4,420 an ounce on Monday, while silver hit the $70 mark for the first time, up nearly 150 percent in 2025.
“Asset owners keep winning,” Kubisi commented.
“American households now own more equity than real estate as a percentage of their net worth, the third such increase in the last 65 years,” he noted.
While the good times continue, market sentiment remains skeptical. Data from the CME Group’s Fed Watch tool currently puts the odds of the Fed cutting rates in January at just 22%.
Bull or bear? Bitcoin Echoes 2022
For top analytics platform CryptoQuant, Bitcoin is firmly in a bear market.
One of the reasons is the so-called bull-bear market cycle indicator, which has been in negative territory since early September, analysts say.
The indicator measures the 30-day SMA of the Traders’ Profit and Loss (P&L) index against its 365-day equivalent.
From mid-May to early September, the 30-day SMA was positive. Currently, it measures -0.52, having recently reached its lowest level since the 2022 bear market.
“Prices enter bear mode when indicators bear down from bulls,” CryptoQuint explained.
Continuing, partner Gogavanchen described the bullish data as part of an overall market slowdown.
In one of CryptoQuant’s “quick tech” blog posts on Monday, he likened the situation to 2018, another bitcoin bear market year, also noting the network’s low activity.
“Indicators confirm a defensive scenario, and looking ahead, comparisons with 2018 suggest that periods of lower activity precede greater volatility, but today’s broader user base reinforces strong resilience in the ecosystem,” he summarized.
Coinbase Premium fails to impress
US Bitcoin investors continue to signal a lack of confidence as selling pressure from the coinbase remains strong.
The latest reading of the coin base premium, as reported by Cryptocoin, shows that our selling pressure bears down.
Premium measures the price difference between Coinbase’s BTC/USD and Binance BTC/USDT pairs. When in negative territory, it indicates that a lack of interest from US buyers will likely cause the market to lose upward momentum.
Blockchain technology expert Elja Baum commented on the matter over the weekend, “Once $BTC sells pressure there, we can finally bounce.”
The cryptocoin shows that the premium hit $56 before rebounding on December 18, still in the red at the time of writing.
This, trader DonCryptoTrade acknowledged, is seen as BTC/USD attempted $80,000 earlier this month.
“A market without a clear direction for a while now. Nothing significant in the data either,” he told X-Followers on Friday.
“Things point to a slower end to the year. Early next year we’ll have a better idea of where it wants to go.”
The worst emotions are intended
Bitcoin nearing Cry 90,000 was enough to lift market sentiment a full nine points, according to each figure on the Crypto Fear and Greed Index.
Related: Bitcoin weekly RSI comes to most levels since the $15K BTC price
Even so, the overall mood is one of “extreme fear” at 25/100 – as opposed to a 45/100 “neutral” reading for the stock.
🚨 NOW: The crypto fear and greed index climbed from 16 to 25 (extreme fear) last week, showing some improvement in sentiment but still deep in fear territory. pic.twitter.com/sjx5r9cuxv
— cointelegraph (@cointelegraph) December 22, 2025
As the market consensus indicates that more downside is due for crypto, few optimistic firms are holding onto the record.
“Markets are in extreme fear, which often presents a great opportunity to see a strong move,” crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michael Van de Pope wrote on Saturday.
“There was a massive disconnect from the recent $BTC crash in the markets, and it’s only a matter of time, in my opinion, that the markets go back to fair value.”
In this context a stubborn trade range is finding limited support as prices stick. Even BTC price targets include a return to all-time highs.
Meanwhile, research firm Sentiment has reiterated that markets do the opposite of what the majority sentiment believes.
“For both swing trading and long-term trading, prices generally follow a path that retail traders least expect. When prices are expected to rise, prices fall. When prices are expected to rise, prices climb,” he summarized with Crypto Social Media Data on Friday.
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