The seasonally adjusted purchase index increased 9% from one week earlier. The unadjusted purchase index decreased 13% compared with the previous week and was 25% higher than the same week one year ago.
What’s driving that significant increase? “Purchase applications have likely been one of the most confusing economic data lines in 2025. To keep it simple, last year hit a historic low, while this year has seen lower rates year over year for most of the year,” commented HousingWire Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami. “Additionally, our new listing data has shown positive growth compared to the same period last year. If you believe that most sellers are also homebuyers, this increase in new listings, based on historically low comparisons, is driving the year-over-year data to a degree as well.”
He continued, “The most remarkable aspect of the 2025 data is that this is still happening, despite rates being near 7%. Typically, housing data improves when mortgage rates drop from 6.64% toward 6%.”
Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist, noted that 30-year fixed mortgage rates decreasing to 6.77% last week — its lowest level in three months. “After adjusting for the July 4th holiday, purchase applications increased to the highest level of activity since February 2023 and remained above year-ago levels. Homebuyer demand is being fueled by increasing housing inventory and moderating home-price growth. The average loan size on a purchase application, at $432,600, was at its lowest since January 2025. The refinance index also increased over the week, with VA refinances in particular up 32%.”
Mortgage rates for several loan products saw decreases from the week before. Jumbo loan 30-year fixed-rate mortgages saw rates decrease to 6.69% from 6.78%. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA decreased to 6.51% from 6.53% and 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 6.04% from 6.06%
The only product that bucked the trend was 5/1 ARMs, which increased to 6.01% from 5.99%.
The refinance index increased 9% from the previous week and was 56% higher than the same week one year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity, however, decreased slightly to 40.0% of total applications from 40.1% the previous week.
The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 7.7% of total applications.
By product, the FHA share of total applications decreased to 17.9% from 18.2% the week prior. The VA share of total applications increased to 13.0% from 12.0% the week prior. The USDA share of total applications increased to 0.6% from 0.5% the week prior.
