However, despite this low benchmark, the positive purchase application data amid high rates indicates a noticeable trend. Typically, we see better housing data when mortgage rates range from 6% to 6.64%, rather than with rates ranging from 6.80% to 7.10%, as we have seen recently. If mortgage rates can simply head toward 6% and stay there for the duration, we can grow sales. And with inventory levels at their lowest since 2019, we are in a much better position to manage sales at 6% interest rates.
Year-to-date count
Last year, while mortgage rates were elevated and rising, purchase application data showed 14 negative week-to-week prints, two flat prints, two positive prints and zero year-over-year growth. This year, the data looks like this:
- 11 positive prints
- 8 negative prints
- 3 flat prints
- 19 straight weeks of positive year-over-year growth data
- The last 6 weeks have shown double-digit growth.
The one noticeable negative period we had this year was when Godzilla tariffs pushed the 10-year yield from 4% toward 4.60% and mortgage rates jumped 0.55% basis points. That period had three straight weeks of negative week-to-week reports. If that hadn’t occurred and the weekly data was positive instead of negative, the year-to-date data would have looked much better. Housing hit a snag with that volatlity and mortgage spreads widened too. However, now as the market has calmed down, mortgage spreads have improved. As we can see in the chart below, purchase apps have acted much year over year over the past six weeks.
Conclusion
It’s been a positive year for purchase application data, even with elevated mortgage rates. Although it appears that cash buyers are down as a percentage of sales, the data for purchase applications in 2025 shows encouraging trends despite chaotic headlines.
The purchase application data typically looks ahead 30 to 90 days, so it may take up to four months for sales data to reflect purchase applications. We should expect year-over-year growth in existing home sales from July to November, as indicated in the reports from June to October, given the relatively low benchmark. Remember, this is occurring in an environment of elevated mortgage rates, not lower rates. Just imagine what would happen if mortgage rates range from 5.75%-6.25% to 6.25% for some duration.
