XRP (XRP) price rose 3% to trade above $1.40 on Friday as several technical and on-chain indicators suggest it is due for a “significant” upside breakout.
Important Points:
XRP’s Bollinger Bands indicator now sees the possibility of a massive price breakout.
The target for XRP’s bearish wedge pattern is $2.55.
Declining exchange rate balance and continued outflows indicate XRP accumulation.
XRP Bollinger Bands Point To “Major” Breakout
Bollinger Bands, a technical indicator used by traders to gauge price momentum and volatility, has hit its tightest point in eight months, signaling that volatility should be expected soon.
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“Daily XRP Bollinger Bands have hit their tightest levels since July 2025,” analyst The Crypto Basic said in an X post on Thursday.
The XRP/USD pair surged nearly 60% to its multi-year high of $3.66 in July 2025, after breaking above the upper boundary of the Bollinger Bands.
“Tight Bollinger Bands often indicate low volatility, and a subsequent breakout can lead to an explosive run,” CryptoBasic added.
Another analyst called it preparation for a “significant breakout.”
Fellow analyst XRP Update said XRP’s price “continues to strengthen within a parallel triangle structure with tightening Bollinger Bands and stabilizing RSI,” adding:
“This volatility compression suggests the market is preparing for a significant breakout.”
With Bollinger Bands tightening, a daily candlestick close above $1.50 will “confirm momentum,” XRP analyst Arthur said.
The XRP bearish wedge pattern target is $2.55.
XRP price action is forming a falling wedge pattern on the weekly chart, a structure that is usually associated with a bullish reversal after a long downtrend.
The price has been contracting between two downtrends since July 2025, with the lower boundary now serving as key support near the $1.30 psychological level.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly chart is rebounding from oversold territory, indicating a bearish selling momentum.
Historically, similar RSI conditions precede strong rebounds in XRP. For example, XRP rallied 85% between July and September 2022 after the RSI recovered from oversold conditions.
A confirmed breakout above the wedge’s upper trendline could open the way for a run to the bullish target of the prevailing chart pattern at $2.55, 78.5% higher than the current price.
As Cointelegraph reported, the bulls should break and sustain the XRP price above the $1.73-$2 supply zone to signal a long-term trend reversal.
A drop in supply on exchanges is XRP’s upside.
XRP supply on exchanges, or the total amount of coins held at exchange addresses, continues to fall, reflecting accumulation and long-term investor confidence.
XRP balances on exchanges fell to 12.8 billion on Friday, a level last seen in May 2021.
Reducing the balance means fewer XRP tokens are available for sale, which can reduce sell-side pressure.
Such outflows typically indicate strong accumulation by large holders, who move funds into cold storage, reducing immediate sell-side pressure and increasing XRP’s chances of a short-term rebound.
However, continued redemptions from spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) may delay XRP’s recovery, which has recorded five consecutive days of outflows, totaling $50.8 million.
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